Mar
17
Yesterday, the Euro, registered significant gains against the majority of currencies. The European Stock market registered gains similar to the sight in Wall s$street. Also, Jean Claude Trichet, impelled the confidence, since he affirmed that he will do against the crisis as he must.
Trichet affirmed that rate glides to reduce overnight lending to 0,5%. In the short term it will imply an increase of the demand by Euros. And on the basis of this announcement major will be waited volatileness in the market, mainly with the Euro and its counterparts.
The Euro gained 40 yesterday pips against the pound, and closed in 0.9284. Also, pips against the yen gained about 300 and closed in 126.24. This had partly to the improvement of the stock market in Japan, and to the GIP that occurred to know there, which showed that the Japanese economy was contracted 3,2% during the fourth trimester of the 2008, the highest number from 1974. Whereas against the dollar, the Euro, pips gained 100 and reached the 1.2924.
For today it is expected Wholesale Price Index (WPI) German to 7:00 GMT, and the Retail Salts to 10:00 GMT. If the projections are fulfilled, the Euro esteem that will continue taking terrain.
Mar
17
Again the markets in the world fell and hard, closing not only the week but also the month of February in red. Dow Jones already accumulates six months of losses, in the last month fell almost 12% and 4.1% in the week. The rest of the markets was in line with the happened thing in Wall s$street. The Nikkei index of Tokyo managed to reclaim land in the week, being one of the few positives, although for the month also it closes in negative land.
What is happening? The recession is accentuated, the financial system does not give samples to improve and is indications of a new deepening of the crisis; we add to that the companies present/display disastrous results, trim dividends, there are no recovery signals and the fall in the activity esteem that will continue (and until it could increase his rate). They are too many reasons to think about positive. All this took to that Wall s$street closes this week in minimum levels from 1.997.
They are continued announcing plans, salvatajes and questions of the sort, but they do not manage to generate optimism. Why? On the one hand, it is not possible to be determined as they will be applied less and if they will be successful. As well, if somebody needs aid is because it is not well; they are “salvatajes”, “plans to reactivate”, “to avoid the depression”, putting on the table bad of the situation and the gravity. Perhaps here we find the reasons for which an action of Citigroup today has the same value that decades back: then, investors greet the aid and the endorsement, but they cannot award to the bank, since, that the losses are endorsed does not imply that they are not going to exist.
Round of the financial crisis is spoken of the second. In first the financial crisis exploded and soon this struck to the real sector; now perhaps the effect is the other way around and the blow felt by the real sector feels on the financial sector. The announcement of American Express to pay 300 dollars to certain clients, so that they give back the card to him (practically so that they stop being clients, previous cancellation of debts) can serve previously like argument for what has been said, although just with time we will be able to have more clarity envelope than it is what it is happening.
The director of the IMF also spoke of possible a second wheel of explosions in the financial market. Certain events give sustenance to their declarations. The crisis of many countries of East Europe, can strike hard not only to the economy of the zone but also to the financial sector of Western Europe, by their exhibition. Another nonsmaller data, was the record of retirement of deposits that occurred in January in the United Kingdom. A generalized and deep banking bullfight can generate new damages to the system.
Barack Obama announced that it glides to reduce the deficit to half for the 2.013; in the same week that projected, that the next budget considered to have the greater fiscal deficit from the decade of the 40. There were other events related to the debt of the United States. Horseradish tree Bernake, said that the plan to buy treasury bonds of long term, at the moment was not going to carry out itself. The yields for the different sections, continue pointing towards majors corrections. Although, a worsening in the crisis, could put to this doubtful refuge, of return in the main menu of the investors; although they do not have good fundamentals for the future.
The fall of Wall s$street towards the minimums in several years, was not accompanied of great movements in the FOREX, as it happened in the past. This time the dollar did not realise new bearish routes against the Euro, over the October levels; although it was the currency of better performance in the week. The main news of the market, was the fall of the yen against one extends basket of currencies, removing to him the status from safe refuge to the currency.
After surpassing the thousand dollars, the gold fell strongly (more than 50 dollars); although it maintains his tendency and its status of refuge positive. Petroleum on the contrary registered one raises important, reached maximum prices from January. It follows the negative tendency effective, it raises although it of the crude one had the particularitity to be accompanied of forts fallen in stock-market. The cuts in the production will be feeling.
Mar
15
To many it has interested to us to play in stock-market, but the passion when your operations you must order them with a runner or to broker, and the emotion to buy are lost and to always sell is better if you could be in the floor shouting, buying and selling right away.
Then after investigating much I found something interesting and is the Market the Currency International, denominated FOREX – acronym of Foreign Exchange (interchange of Foreign Currencies) – and this market practically exists anywhere of the world, as specialistic of systems imagines to me that there would be thousands of tools in line.
And indeed, there are literally thousands, as initial way I decided to enter several of them as long as they allowed me to enter to try with a smaller investment, that is to say decided “to play to try”.
In some of the pages that I found you could in line operate through an application Web and/or can unload an application for your computer that works in real time, as it is the case of Forex.com, Nótese that nothing has to do Forex.com with Forex.com.mx. In Mexico the limit inferior – that I found to enter is of 10.000 pesos, but in Internet you find companies based on other countries where you can begin with 1 dollar.
The peculiar thing is that the money that you put allows you to apalacar transactions according to the variation of the currency, and then with a few dollars you can be operating (buying and selling) million, since what these doing are to raise with a lever the variations. The Broker is the company or person through which beams your positionings, they cannot sugerirte only buy or sell “by law” can give to information of the happened facts and your takings your own decisions.
Because the case is that it gets passionate to me at the moment making transactions where the Euro has been to the loss, and with a minimal one of attention it obtains results impressive, you imagine to be able to gain the 25, 50 or 70% of utility in a rat? , and I say literally it in a rat, because in less than 2 hours already I had gained 26% on my investment.
Also tapeworm my slopes, but the tools with which you can transaccionar in line allow to say I am going to invest to x dollars you and to my I want it risk to limit x1, dollars if I get to lose that closes your operation and you do not lose but, and also you can say and to my I want it gain to put in x2 in such a way that when has gained x3 dollars it closes my operation automatically. Thus you can say I risk 10% and I limit myself to gain 50% by operation – by example. Also you can play of open way, that is to say you do not put limits, therefore your limit of lost is all your investment, and your utility not tendria limit – hypothetical speaking because the time counts and the currencies they do not have a single tendency permanently, it is more in hours they raise and they lower several times. As Mathematical I thought about the funny thing that it can be, and almost almost like when you only play in the roulette and bets the Red or Black color or and soon you change based on which it has left. You amuse yourself and you entertain yourself.
You can do I practically deposit initial at any time and with tarjetaso that he is but the fast thing to be able to operate or with a transference that takes a little more, days sometimes depending the country where this broker.
Really it is worth the pain to try it.
Mar
15
Creating a forex trading system that works is a task some people assign to a divine entity who magically manifests itself as a marketer selling the latest “holy grail” forex trading system. When it comes to an automatic 20 pip forex trading system, the search is likely to be long and arduous, because of the old adage “if he’s doing it, why isn’t everyone doing it”.
In fact, I don’t believe there can be an automatic 20 pip forex trading system because there is always the element of the forex market which is totally unpredictable.
It’s not irregular for a forex analysts whose automatic 20 pip forex trading system is based entirely on his fundamental and technical analysis has to come back the following day and explain an unexpected reversal due to fundamental (socio-economic) news being announced lower or higher than expected resulting.
Another example of why this may happen in these times is a decision made about the war in Iraq for example that has resulted in emotional buying or selling of the USD for instance and therefore rendering the automatic 20 pip forex system another forex loser for the day at least.
So, if fundamental analysis can not be predicted, and as one author puts it “no one knows whats going to happen” in the forex market, how can an automatic 20 pip forex trading system be created?
The answer lies in the understanding of the word “automatic” If you truly want an automated automatic 20 pip forex trading system, you are going to be hard pushed. This is because there are going to have to be rules, such as not trading in the vicinity of newstime where the market reaction can be unpredicatable based on technical indicators due to the reaction of the market to the news as opposed more than predetermined technical levels which tend to get overidden particularly during major announcement such as the non-farm payroll data once per month.
However, you could call a manual trading strategy which makes a fairly consistent 20 points an automatic 20 pip trading system, but there has to be a footnote really, and that footnote must include various rules about the automatic 20 pip trading strategy as to when and how the system can and should be used exactly. The system itself is automatic in the way it roduces buy and sell signals, but, due to the nature of the forex market, it must be traded manually in reality using intuition and skill to not trade during false signals.
If you decided you were going to create the makings of an automatic 20 pip trading strategy, you cannot call it that immediately, because at first it sometimes will be good only for 10-15 pips rather than the full 20. At other times, it may give you automatic signals which tell you to get into a trade which goes for 50, 70 or even 100 pips at a time, which for an intraday forex trading system would be borderline outstanding considering the market may move in a range of only 120-150 pips on a reasonable trading day,
For an automatic 20 pips forex trading system then, one must know the online currency market fairly well. One must have education and mentoring and at least training in some indicators and strategies to understand the reading of the market technically, as well as a sound understanding of the fundamental analysis aspects of the forex market.
For myself, the automatic 20 pip forex trading system I utilise contains a good deal of classic trading rules, fibonacci retracement zones are mapped in, moving averages abound and there is use also of momentum and strength of the market indicators with as much lag reduction as I have found possible with fairly foolproof fail-saftey measures to reduce false signals to an absolute minimum.
Contrast that with a trader I spoke to today and I was flabbergasted to hear together we brainstorm from being technicals-crazy to having an automatic 20 point trading system that gives at least 2 signals per day across three currency pairs (a total 40 points daily target for the system) using only 3 lines on-chart and absolutely nothing offchart – not even a care about news (fundamentals) particularly because it ‘does his head in’. So, just as the fat lady sings when its all over, so expect that anything may be possible.
A system is automatic in that it one to be confident to enter trades. A forex strategy is manual in that it is the forex trader who pulls the trigger on a trade. Its automatic though in terms of generating the entry signal based on the lining up of a few indicators on the chart and off the chart. Rules include the times of trading being particular market hours and avoidance of important announcements is key.
This article concludes that it is possible to create an automatic 20 pip forex trading system, but it takes a lot of trial and error to create an automatic 20 pip forex trading system that does not generate a whole bunch of false entry signals and actually captures trades that go the 20 pip distance.
Mar
15
Looking at Friday’s trades reminds me of the importance of multiple technical indictors. When I was writing Friday’s newsletter, I spoke of several indicators, which lead me to believe Cable was going down. Lets review:
First we would like to decide if the up swing will continue or not, and looking at the 1 hour chart we do not believe it will. We have just had a steep angle cross of the MACD to the sell side of the signal line, and the 15 minute MACD continue to be strong on the sell side. The slow stochastic on the 1 hour chart had a steep angle cross several hour ago and both line are steeply heading down.
Based on this information we correctly predicted the market was going down. Now many of you would ask me why not just get in your trade and ride it down.
Hind site being 20/20, I asked myself the same question, But in my personal trading style, I used 1.7460 as my entry, which means I missed getting in my trades by a frustrating 4 Pips.
The simple fact is 1.7460 was a good entry, we were trading @ 1.7452 when I set the trades at 12:00, you can not expect the market would not go up 4 pips to get me in, that is just unrealistic.
So once again I missed out on a very big night, of 150 Pips, but I have to come to the realization the market is completely random and although I was able to predict the direction and the levels, you still need a little good luck every once in a while to help you make a big trade. Many more times than not you will get in that trade, it just was not to be last night.
Tonight we are trading around 1.7330, our first region of resistance is in the 1,7380 range, and a second region around 1.7420. Strong support exits From 1.7310 to 1.7280 levels.
We have several reasons to believe the upcoming week should have a significant increase in volatility. We will have to watch closely this week as the news unfold to decide how it will affect the market and our trades.
You can also use these same techniques to successfully pick your our trades, just like we do. With the proper forex trading education there is no reason you could not be making the kinds of trades we are make, and discussing in our articles.
Let’s face it, whether it’s a Forex Trading Course, or a Forex Seminar, you NEED a Forex Trading Education
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